JCHS: Continued Easing of Remodeling Declines Expected into 2025

Annual expenditures for improvements and repairs to owner-occupied homes are projected to decrease this year and into the first quarter of 2025, but at a moderating rate, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The LIRA projects that annual owner spending for home renovations and maintenance will decline by over 7 percent in the third quarter of this year before easing to just -2.6 percent through the first quarter of 2025.

“Residential remodeling is expected to benefit from the rebounding housing market and stabilizing material costs as we move into next year,” says Carlos Martín, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center. “While home improvement and repair spending is down from pandemic-induced highs, the nation’s aging homes continue to need investment in critical replacements, home performance deficiencies, as well as modernization.”  

“At $451 billion, spending on homeowner improvements and repairs over the coming year is anticipated to be slightly lower than the $463 billion spent over the last year,” says Abbe Will, Associate Director of the Remodeling Futures Program. “Yet, the remodeling downturn is poised to be fairly modest and short-lived with market expenditures steadying at near-record levels.”

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in 2007, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial American Housing Survey.

The LIRA is released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University in the third week after each quarter’s closing. The next LIRA release date is July 18, 2024.

The Remodeling Futures Program, initiated by the Joint Center for Housing Studies in 1995, is a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the growth and changing characteristics of housing renovation and repair activity in the United States. The Program seeks to produce a better understanding of the home improvement industry and its relationship to the broader residential construction industry.

The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies strives to improve equitable access to decent, affordable homes in thriving communities. We conduct rigorous research to advance policy and practice, and we bring together diverse stakeholders to spark new ideas for addressing housing challenges. Through teaching and fellowships, we mentor and inspire the next generation of housing leaders.

Contact:

Abbe Will – Media Contact – abbe_will@harvard.edu – (617) 496-8844

Source: The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies